Casino Winners Secrets - Formulas and Simulation Results


A Virtual Gambling System that makes money from 200% Bonus Casinos.
Introduction	Blackjack Overview	Online Casino Bonuses	Casino Winners Secrets	Which Online Casinos
Risks	More Ways to Win	Step by Step Instructions	Basic Strategy Guide	Formulas and Results

Warning

While this system will show you that the odds are in your favor it is still very possible to lose money. Read the document carefully and take note of the risks involved. You should only gamble with money that you can afford to lose.

Formulas

To simplify things and also to be conservative I will assume you lose 50% of hands, win 40% and have a stand off in 10%. Firstly let’s assume there are no bonuses and you are playing with all your own money. You have $300 and you want to wager a total of $1200. Also let’s assume you will gamble the $300 each hand. The most hands you would play are 4. The possible outcomes for each hand are:

S = Stand off (Probability = 0.1)

W = Win (Probability = 0.4)

L = Lose (Probability = 0.5)

The possible outcomes over 4 hands, and their probabilities are:

Outcomes	Probability (Pr)	Return (R)	Expected Return (Pr X R)
L	0.5	-$300	-$150.00
WLL	(0.4x0.5x0.5) = 0.1	-$300	-$30.00
WLWL	(0.4x0.5x0.4x0.5) = 0.04	$0	$0.00
WLWW	(0.4x0.5x0.4x0.4) = 0.032	$600	$19.20
WLWS	(0.4x0.5x0.4x0.1) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WLSL	(0.4x0.5x0.1x0.5) = 0.01	-$300	-$3.00
WLSW	(0.4x0.5x0.1x0.4) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WLSS	(0.4x0.5x0.1x0.1) = 0.002	$0	$0.00
WWLL	(0.4x0.4x0.5x0.5) = 0.04	$0	$0.00
WWLW	(0.4x0.4x0.5x0.4) = 0.032	$600	$19.20
WWLS	(0.4x0.4x0.5x0.1) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WWWL	(0.4x0.4x0.4x0.5) = 0.032	$600	$19.20
WWWW	(0.4x0.4x0.4x0.4) = 0.0256	$1200	$30.72
WWWS	(0.4x0.4x0.4x0.1) = 0.0064	$900	$5.76
WWSL	(0.4x0.4x0.1x0.5) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WWSW	(0.4x0.4x0.1x0.4) = 0.0064	$900	$5.76
WWSS	(0.4x0.4x0.1x0.1) = 0.0016	$600	$0.96
WSLL	(0.4x0.1x0.5x0.5) = 0.01	-$300	-$3.00
WSLW	(0.4x0.1x0.5x0.4) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WSLS	(0.4x0.1x0.5x0.1) = 0.002	$0	$0.00
WSWL	(0.4x0.1x0.4x0.5) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WSWW	(0.4x0.1x0.4x0.4) = 0.0064	$900	$5.76
WSWS	(0.4x0.1x0.4x0.1) = 0.0016	$600	$0.96
WSSL	(0.4x0.1x0.1x0.5) = 0.002	$0	$0.00
WSSW	(0.4x0.1x0.1x0.4) = 0.0016	$600	$0.96
WSSS	(0.4x0.1x0.1x0.1) = 0.0004	$300	$0.12
SL	(0.1x0.5) = 0.05	-$300	-$15.00
SWLL	(0.1x0.4x0.5x0.5) = 0.01	-$300	-$3.00
SWLW	(0.1x0.4x0.5x0.4) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
SWLS	(0.1x0.4x0.5x0.1) = 0.002	$0	$0.00
SWWL	(0.1x0.4x0.4x0.5) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
SWWW	(0.1x0.4x0.4x0.4) = 0.0064	$900	$5.76
SWWS	(0.1x0.4x0.4x0.1) = 0.0016	$600	$0.96
SWSL	(0.1x0.4x0.1x0.5) = 0.002	$0	$0.00
SWSW	(0.1x0.4x0.1x0.4) = 0.0016	$600	$0.96
SWSS	(0.1x0.4x0.1x0.1) = 0.0004	$300	$0.12
SSL	(0.1x0.1x0.5) = 0.005	-$300	-$1.50
SSWL	(0.1x0.1x0.4x0.5) = 0.002	$0	$0.00
SSWW	(0.1x0.1x0.4x0.4) = 0.0016	$600	$0.96
SSWS	(0.1x0.1x0.4x0.1) = 0.0004	$300	$0.12
SSSL	(0.1x0.1x0.1x0.5) = 0.0005	-$300	-$0.15
SSSW	(0.1x0.1x0.1x0.4) = 0.0004	$300	$0.12
SSSS	(0.1x0.1x0.1x0.1) = 0.0001	$0	$0.00
Total	1		-$17.85

What the table above shows is that (assuming Pr(W) = 0.4, Pr(L) = 0.5 and Pr(S) = 0.1) if you gambled at an online casino with your own money and you made 4 bets of $300, on average you would expect to lose $17.85 or 5.95% of your money.

Using the bonus money instead of your own, the winnings will not change however whenever you lose you only lose $100 not $300. The table below shows the expected results for 4 hands.

Outcomes	Probability (Pr)	Return (R)	Expected Return (Pr X R)
L	0.5	-$100	-$50.00
WLL	(0.4x0.5x0.5) = 0.1	-$100	-$10.00
WLWL	(0.4x0.5x0.4x0.5) = 0.04	$0	$0.00
WLWW	(0.4x0.5x0.4x0.4) = 0.032	$600	$19.20
WLWS	(0.4x0.5x0.4x0.1) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WLSL	(0.4x0.5x0.1x0.5) = 0.01	-$100	-$1.00
WLSW	(0.4x0.5x0.1x0.4) = 0.008	$300	$2.40
WLSS	(0.4x0.5x0.1x0.1) = 0.002	$0	$0.00
WWLL	(0.4x0.4x0.5x0.5) = 0.04	$0	$0.00
WWLW	(0.4x0.4x0.5x0.4) = 0.032	$600	$19.20
WWLS	(0.4x0.4x0.5x0.1) = 0.008	$300